tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24622549.post4862415270137246918..comments2023-10-19T06:59:20.135-07:00Comments on Kishkushim خربطات קישקושים: A New Look at the SurgeAmoshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03465114506715277544noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24622549.post-49921594516670668302008-04-06T12:10:00.000-07:002008-04-06T12:10:00.000-07:00Thanks for the excellent summary and analysis, Noa...Thanks for the excellent summary and analysis, Noah. I happen to think that the idea of "integrating the centrifugal forces" is something way beyond the capabilities of the U.S. military and government, never mind, the UN (which can't even run itself). <BR/><BR/>It remains to be seen what the Surge really accomplished, but I don't know if there was any other choice in Anbar province and the various other Sunni areas. Defeating al-Qaeda type forces there was rightly seen as a big priority for the U.S. and its regional allies - notably the Saudis and Jordanians.<BR/><BR/>What the U.S. now has to do is to maintain some sort of position as a super-mediator and as the only power able to coerce various sides to hold to some uneasy compromise. The Sunnis have to realize that without the U.S., they will be screwed, and one or two of the Shi'i factions have to be made to feel that they need the U.S. in order to stay in power. <BR/><BR/>While Iran does not have a lot of "positive" power, it has enough capabilities at its disposal to act as spoiler, at least occasionally. I don't know what the current thinking is in State and the White House; the mood has probably less maximalist than it used to be, and there might be more voices urging some sort of concession that would give Iran a small sphere of influence in exchange for working toward stability.<BR/><BR/>I hope that while people are preoccupied with the south, the U.S. is arming the Kurds to the teeth and building as much as possible up there.Amoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03465114506715277544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24622549.post-55829120700627398202008-04-05T11:19:00.000-07:002008-04-05T11:19:00.000-07:00The Economist published a special report on Israel...The Economist published a special report on Israel. Don't miss itNobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.com