Friday, January 19, 2007

Inside the Merkava















Rear door of Merkava 4 tank, a feature that experts say helps the IDF save lives.

On a recent visit to Israel, I spoke with a member of the IDF's most elite tank unit. I'll call him Amit. My interest in the state of tank warfare in the region had been piqued back in Berkeley by a conversation with an American reserve tank driver. He had contended that the Lebanon War last summer had debunked the myth of the Israeli-made Merkava tank's near invincibility, citing in particular the destruction of the tank, along with all of its personnel, which followed Hezbullah operatives over the border in the conflict's opening moments. The American Abrams tank, he told me, while lacking many of the Merkava's capabilities, had never been known to lose all of its crew in a single hit.

When I tattled on the Merkava to Amos, he quickly pointed out that the tank destroyed by Hezbullah likely wasn't the newest version, the Merkava 4. In Israel, the IDF's Amit confirmed that this tank was in fact an older version, the Merkava 2. The bomb placed under the tank weighed some 500kg. "Would a Merkava 4 have suffered the same fate?" I asked Amit. "No," he said. In fact, he claimed that a Merkava 4 had been hit by a charge nearly as powerful. Of the seven crew members inside, only one, sadly, a close friend of Amit, had perished.

From my conversation with Amit I gained some anecdotal insight into what went wrong in the last war -- at least with regard to tanks. Amit's unit, which only trains on Merkava 4, which is the most prestigious tank unit, and the first sent into combat, had not been inside a tank in full year when the fighting broke out! Why hadn't these soldiers, who went immediately to the front, to Kiryat Shemona and on to Metulla, been in a tank in so long? Quite simply, according to Amit, they had spent their time setting up roadblocks and manning checkpoints in the West Bank, in other words, doing police work.

Of course, the Merkava also faced world-class anti-tank weapons, launched by mobile, elusive two-man teams. Tank drivers, it seems, prefer to engage other tanks. The role of tanks in the so-called "asymmetrical warfare" of contemporary battles remains in flux.

Monday, January 15, 2007

The Secret Syrian Channel

Golan Heights, January 2007 (Photo: N)

By now, the denunciations of the report in Ha'aretz that Israelis and Syrians engaged in secret talks on a peace agreement from September 2004 until August 2006, well into the war between Israel and Hizbullah, have hit the news tickers. Unnamed cabinet ministers and a former aide to Sharon have called the news "nonsense." Likud MK Yuval Steinitz, who sometimes talks sense and more often goes crazy, referred to the news as "sleight of hand."

I have previously been skeptical of Syrian overtures, and I don't know what it means that this report is coming out now, but if the draft framework for negotiations published in Ha'aretz is accurate, I am willing to lift all objections. Frankly speaking, this agreement is too good to be true for Israel. The draft includes
  1. an end to hostilities and the commencement of bilateral relations
  2. the establishment of demilitarized zones on the areas of the Golan evacuated by Israel
  3. "Zones of reduced military forces ... in Israel west of the international border with Syria and in Syria east of the Golan Heights" whose depths will be in a 1:4 ratio in favor of Israel
  4. cooperation in "fighting terrorism of all kinds"
  5. "the solution of regional problems related to the Palestinians, Lebanese, and Iran"
  6. a settlement on water sources under which Syria promises not to "interrupt or obstruct natural flow of water in either quality or quantity in the Upper Jordan River, its tributaries, and Lake Tiberias"
  7. the establishment of a Syrian-administered "Peace Park" east of the border that will be open to Israeli tourists without an entry visa
A waterfall in the Golan

Anyone who rejects such a plan does not have the long-term interests of the State of Israel in mind. If a peace deal along the lines of this draft is still possible, the government of Israel must pursue it.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Radio Sawa - Again



Israel's latest Arab Minister, Ghaleb Majadle, in a screenshot of his profile on the Arabic language version website of the Israeli Knesset

Listening to Radio Sawa today, I was again reminded of the dire need for this American-owned Arabic language radio station in the Middle East. In a broadcast today (morning, Eastern Standard Time), the radio station reported the recent appointment of Ghaleb Majadle, a (Muslim) Arab member of the Knesset with the Labour party, to the position of Minister of Science, Culture and Sport. Sawa then described the border-line racist criticisms of the appointment by members of Avigdor Lieberman's "Israel Beitenu" party. However, rather than focusing exclusively on the statements of Lieberman's populists, the Radio Sawa article linked to the broadcast also printed the denunciations of the remarks made by members of the Labour party and by Mikhael Eitan of the Likud:

من جانبه أعرب النائب مايل إيتان من حزب الليكود المعارض عن رفضه لما وصفها بالتصريحات العنصرية وقال إنه لا يمكن أن يقبلها أي شخص مؤمن بالمساواة والديموقراطية.

[For his part, [Knesset] representative [Mikhael] Eitan from the opposition Likud Party rejected what he described as racist statements and said that they are unacceptable for anyone who believes in equality and democracy].

I'm sure that mainstream Arab news outlets, including al-Jazeera, will not even cover this event, or will focus only on the outrageous comments by the clowns of Israel Beitenu. A quick Google search that I ran for غالب مجادل (Ghaleb Majadle, the name of the Arab Minister) and a look at al-Jazeera's site actually revealed nothing.

Israel Must Look East, Far East

Palace of Heavenly Purity, Forbidden City (Source: Wikipedia)

In a recent column, Ha'aretz writer Aluf Benn remarks that
The immediate response of many Israelis to the news that their prime minister is visiting China is "what is he looking for there?" The cynics among them point to the circumstances and the timing and perceive Ehud Olmert's visit to Beijing as a convenient escape from the oppressive problems facing him at home ...
As usual, Benn has hit the nail right on the head. Although there is plenty of appreciation for China's importance in the Israeli business world and parts of the academy (engineering and the sciences), the political sector, the pundits and opinion-makers of the country are hopelessly fixated on Europe and the United States. It is an arrogance toward the east (far and near) born of provincialism.

While the whole world understands that "China's economic growth is the main international story of the past decade," Israeli policymakers seem clueless about the geopolitical and economic changes that will result from it:
Israel has watched all these developments from a distance. Immersed in itself and in the conflict with the Palestinians, the Israeli leadership is interested only in what is thought and said about it in Washington, and to a lesser but increasing degree, in Europe as well.
Israel must start paying attention to what countries like China and Vietnam as well as the more established economic powerhouses of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore think about it. Israelis have to start communicating with the rest of the world - preferably through their languages and cultures. It must also stop wasting time and start solving the problems that are likely to present insurmountable obstacles to long-term growth. A withdrawal from the West Bank and even the Golan, if that is what it takes, is a small price to pay for a place in the world order 20 years from now.

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Generous Offers and Opportunities to Miss Opportunities

The map from Ross's The Missing Peace (Source: Jpundit)

It has become widely accepted among pro-Palestinian advocates that former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's "generous offer" to Yasir Arafat at the July 2000 Camp David summit was, in fact, an insidious attempt to further cement Israeli control over the Palestinians. According to this narrative, which calls itself a corrective to Zionist propaganda, and, which, has even been accepted by many Israeli leftists, the Palestinians were entirely justified in rejecting Barak's overtures, as the offer was not generous at all. Jimmy Carter has given new credence to this myth in his book.

The lies told by the Palestinian leadership and their witting as well as unwitting propagandists in the West are all the more astounding as they contradict the recollections of U.S. President Clinton as well as several key American negotiators. Dennis Ross has tried for years to talk sense into the myth-makers, but apparently it is easier to continue believing that everything Israel does is actually aimed at cementing the oppression of the Palestinians. In an op-ed published in the New York Times earlier today, Ross accuses Carter of
misrepresent[ing] the Middle East proposals advanced by President Bill Clinton in 2000, and in so doing undermin[ing], in a small but important way, efforts to bring peace to the region.
Apparently, Carter in his book contrasted two maps which he labeled the “Palestinian Interpretation of Clinton’s Proposal 2000” and the “Israeli Interpretation of Clinton’s Proposal 2000.” However, as Ross explains,

The problem is that the “Palestinian interpretation” is actually taken from an Israeli map presented during the Camp David summit meeting in July 2000, while the “Israeli interpretation” is an approximation of what President Clinton subsequently proposed in December of that year. Without knowing this, the reader is left to conclude that the Clinton proposals must have been so ambiguous and unfair that Yasir Arafat, the Palestinian leader, was justified in rejecting them. But that is simply untrue.

The Arafat apologists insist to this day that the Palestinian leader made the right choice, dismissing the quip attributed to Abba Eban that "the Palestinians have never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity" as a vicious lie. But considering what the Palestinians could have obtained in 2000 if they had accepted Barak's offer instead of launching the second intifadah, Eban's statement is still right on the money. As Dennis Ross writes,

Put simply, the Clinton parameters would have produced an independent Palestinian state with 100 percent of Gaza, roughly 97 percent of the West Bank and an elevated train or highway to connect them. Jerusalem’s status would have been guided by the principle that what is currently Jewish will be Israeli and what is currently Arab will be Palestinian, meaning that Jewish Jerusalem — East and West — would be united, while Arab East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state.

The Palestinian state would have been “nonmilitarized,” with internal security forces but no army and an international military presence led by the United States to prevent terrorist infiltration and smuggling. Palestinian refugees would have had the right of return to their state, but not to Israel, and a fund of $30 billion would have been created to compensate those refugees who chose not to exercise their right of return to the Palestinian state.

One of the most common arguments advanced by those critical of the "generous offer myth" is that the Clinton plan would not have produced a contiguous Palestinian state. Never mind that the main reason cited by Arafat for his rejection of the proposal was the problem of the refugees (he, of course, insisted that Palestinian refugees and their descendants be allowed to move to pre-1967 Israel). And never mind that few of these critics have ever produced evidence in the form of maps demonstrating that the Clinton plan would result in the West Bank's division into "Bantustans." It's also strange that few of these propagandists have considered the fact that a Palestinian state will not be contiguous anyway, since Gaza and the West Bank are separated by a broad swathe of Israel.

But logic doesn't disturb such useful morons as Miriam Ward, a member of Pax Christi, who declared in a 2002 piece that
In the 1993 Oslo Agreement, by recognizing Israel’s right to exist, Palestinians already gave up 78 percent of their land and accepted the formula “land for peace” within the context of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which calls for the withdrawal of Israel from the occupied territories. This meant Palestinians were willing to settle for 22 percent of originally mandated Palestine. To put it bluntly: You take $100 from me and later offer to repay $22. I cut my losses and give up $78. Still later you want more of my remaining $22.
By her reasoning, anything the Palestinians concede should be regarded as a favor to Israel, since the land really belongs to the Arabs. Indeed, this is the consensus among the large majority of the post-colonial academic elite in America, and their growing disciples in the world. Using the rhetoric of "indigenous rights," they present Jews as entirely alien to the Land of Israel and to the Middle East.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Dov Zakheim: Reposition U.S. Troops to Iraqi Borders


Former Under Secretary of Defense Dov Zakheim, in an article published in the Financial Times on January 6, argues that the U.S. should reposition its forces on Iraq's borders rather than committing more troops to Baghdad and other cities. The concerns underlying Zakheim's proposal is very much in line with some of those expressed previously on this blog. Zakheim writes that
There is no doubt that Iraq is enmeshed in a bitter civil war. The US has had minimal impact on the course of that war. Iraqi casualties continue to mount, as do the number of Iraqis who have decided to kill their fellow citizens. Americans are caught in the crossfire. They cannot stop the sectarian forces that are determined to kill one another. The US could not do so in Lebanon during the 1980s and cannot do so today in Iraq.
He argues for a shift in American priorities. Instead of fighting to achieve stability inside Iraq, the U.S. must focus on preserving stability and American interests in the region. To this end, Zakheim suggests stationing a force of two brigades (a brigade is made up of 3,000-5,000 soldiers) In Iraqi Kurdistan, two further brigades in the far west of al-Anbar on the border with Syria, and a division (10,000-20,000 troops) in the south that will guard the border with Iran.

He also argues that

The forces in Kurdistan would help forestall a Kurdish declaration of independence that would prompt a Turkish invasion. The troops in western Iraq would help prevent both terrorist infiltration into Jordan and serious incursions from Syria. They would also indicate to Damascus that it should not misinterpret a readiness to talk as a concession.

and that the division-sized force in the south would send a clear signal to Tehran.

The New Anatolian has a slightly different interpretation of Zakheim's proposal:
U.S. forces should operate from Iraq's borders to stop the country from launching attacks against its neighbors and preventing any intervention by Turkey in the north in response to a Kurdish declaration of independence, the Financial Times said on Friday.
Stationing forces on the border between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey could allow both sides to save face in the case of a Kurdish declaration of independence, by setting limits on Kurdish northward aspirations and Turkish responses. However, I doubt that U.S. President Bush will adopt Zakheim's plan when he declares his new Iraq strategy. The members of this administration appear convinced that anything less than "staying the course" will be disastrous for their long-term political fortunes.

Sunday, January 07, 2007

Racist Attacks up in Germany

(Source: Perry-Castaneda)

ADDENDUM: Two men in their mid-twenties from the town of Sangerhausen in Saxony-Anhalt have been indicted for their role in an arson attack on a facility housing applicants for political refugee status. The suspects, who are known neo-Nazis, threw three Molotov cocktails into an apartment in the facility early on Saturday morning. No one was hurt in the attack (SZ).

Last Friday afternoon, an Israeli and a Yemenite student, both in their twenties, were attacked by five men in a Magdeburg streetcar. The assailants pushed the victims and taunted them with racist slurs. One of them pulled a knife and threatened the students. However, the two were able to fend off the attackers, and the tram-driver alerted the police who arrested the five men, aged 35 to 46. They have been charged with sedition [Volksverhetzung, literally "incitement of the people"], uttering threats, and assault (Spiegel).

Magdeburg is a mid-sized city in the former East German Land of Saxony-Anhalt, which currently leads all other German Bundesländer in the number of hate crimes committed by right-wing extremists. In the statistics, Saxony-Anhalt is followed by three other former East German Bundesländer, Brandenburg, Thuringia, and Saxony. However, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg also reported significant increases in hate crimes. Overall, German police are reporting record numbers of such crimes for the year 2006.

These crimes are often attributed to young people who came of age in the 1990s. There is indeed a strong right-wing extremist youth culture in many towns of the former East Germany, that rose to prominence especially after the fall of the Berlin wall. In this particular case, the attackers came from a slightly older generation, educated entirely in the German Democratic Republic.

I last visited Magdeburg sometime in December 2003, when I had the chance to visit the Jewish community there. It is a rather dreadful city, visibly depressed. Like much of Saxony-Anhalt, it suffers from high unemployment. For some reason or another, its university has attracted a number of Israeli and other foreign students - one of whom I met in the synagogue. A former artillery-man who had served in Lebanon until the withdrawal, he complained bitterly about living conditions in the East. Most of the Jewish community, as elsewhere in Germany, consists of immigrants from the former Soviet Union. Few of them have any desire to stay in Magdeburg; I remember a group of high schoolers who were especially enthusiastic about leaving for Canada (rather than the U.S. or Israel).

Volksverhetzung under German criminal law (Paragraph 130) covers incitement to "hatred or violence against certain parts of the population," or attacks on "the human dignity of others through insults, malicious libel, or defamation," (German Ministry of Justice). Paragraphs 130.3 and 130.4 also outlaw Holocaust denial and the use of symbols from the Nazi era. Convictions can lead to imprisonment from 3 months to 5 years and/or a monetary fine.

Friday, January 05, 2007

The Week Ahead - Iraq and Ramallah

Nancy Pelosi (from her website)

The Democrats are putting pressure on U.S. President Bush just ahead of his much-anticipated new Iraq strategy. Following rumors that Bush will order a "surge" in U.S. troops, some key Democrats have come out charging. Earlier on CNN today, Senator Joseph Biden (D-Delaware) told Wolf Blitzer that he believed the administration could not admit defeat in Iraq, and that it was hoping to pass the mess on to the next president, who would then be responsible for "rescuing Americans from roof tops" (a reference to the fall of Saigon). Before that, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) sent an open letter to the President, in which they told Bush,
Surging forces is a strategy that you have already tried and that has already failed. Like many current and former military leaders, we believe that trying again would be a serious mistake. They, like us, believe there is no purely military solution in Iraq. There is only a political solution.
See our previous post on the idiocy of plans to increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq. Will Bush bow to the pressure of the Democrats?

Meanwhile, the fallout from yesterday's IDF daytime raid in Ramallah has yet to be evaluated. Mubarak as well as the Palestinians reacted angrily. Russia made a special statement condemning the operation (Ha'aretz). Will this blow over or can we expect to see an escalation in Palestinian actions against Israel?

The Jewish Vote in France

Segolene Royale (photo from her official web site)

The JTA has a piece on the Jewish vote in the French presidential race. A number of French Jews interviewed in the article who identified themselves as backers of the Socialists are voting for Nicolas Sarkozy, the Gaullist candidate this time. The conclusion of the reporter's analysis, apparently based on the opinion of one Michael Sebban, a 38-year-old high school philosophy teacher, is that French Jews are not so much voting for Sarkozy as against the Socialist candidate Segolene Royale. The reason cited: her inexperience in foreign policy, especially when it comes to the Middle East.

The article rather uncritically parrots the line that Royale is anti-Israel. As we have reported previously (see bottom), this is simply not true. The JTA article also paints Royal 's Middle East trip as a debacle. That was certainly not the Israeli impression - see Daniel Ben-Simon's feature in Ha'aretz, "Diplomatic neophyte? No way," written in the wake of the Segolene craze that swept through Israel when Royal visited the country.

Of course, the French Socialist party is hardly a great friend of Israel - but neither is Chirac's Union pour un Mouvement Populaire. For the classical UMP line one only has to look at Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie's work during and after the Lebanon war.

One of the top priorities for French Jews, as the JTA article also suggests, is fighting crime and antisemitic attacks, especially in the suburbs that are home to large populations of North African immigrants and their children. Much of France's Jewish population is also North African. In the past, the Jewish and Muslim Algerians, Tunisians, and Moroccans may have cooperated on social issues, but that era has come to an end with the explosion of attacks on Jews and Jewish institutions since 2000. Sarkozy has been unequivocal in his efforts to combat crime and assaults on Jews. This stance, combined with his support for Israel, have endeared him even to those traditionally aligned with the Socialists. French Jews, like American Jews, have traditionally voted for the left. It remains to be seen whether they will continue voting Socialist (just as American Jews have continued voting for the Democrats) or switch over to the Gaullists.

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Steal from the poor, give to the rich

Bank of Israel governor Stanley Fischer (Source: Bank of Israel)

UPDATE: The full interview is now up (Friday).

In an interview that will appear in the Ha'aretz Magazine on Friday, Stanley Fischer, the governor of the Bank of Israel (equivalent to America's Federal Reserve) confirms what many Israeli families have felt for a long time. Israeli banks are squeezing the little guy to offer better terms to the rich:
"In comparison to the international sphere, the big companies get credit at very good terms," he said. "Someone else pays for that. It's a case of cross-subsidization. The margin in one sector would appear to fund the margin in the second sector and subsidize it."
There is a widespread perception in Israeli society that the gap between ordinary people and members of the political and business elites has widened dramatically in the past decades. Many middle and working class families express frustration about the high levels of taxation (financial and social) that they have to endure, while a small class of very wealthy people drives around in American SUVs and sends its children to foreign universities.

The Tax Authority bribery scandal now in the news headlines will likely further strengthen this frustration. It is neither the first nor the last big-time corruption case involving the highest echelons of the state and big business.

Looking for a Job in Israel?

The Classifieds: Israel Rail's Newspaper, December 24, 2006

People in Israel often complain about how hard it is to find work. In the end, although it is a hated job, many young people turn to "shmira" (guarding).
Security guards are posted everywhere in Israel: at schools, supermarkets, post offices and banks, movie theatres, the gym, shopping malls, and bus station entrances. My belongings are searched every day an average of three or four times, sometimes more. The security guard job is hated because it is usually boring. The guards stands at a designated place for hours and checks bags and purses and may ask a few questions here and there. In the winter, most guards stand outside in the cold until their shift is over. And when the job isn't boring, it's dangerous. A number of security guards were wounded or even killed during the Intifidah while protecting entrances. The relatively low salary (often less than $6 an hour) is hardly worth risking your life for.
And yet, if 2006 is any indication of how 2007 turns out, security guards will remain to be in hot demand. On page 21 in last week's Classified section of the Israel Rail's newspaper, 11 out of the 36 ads were seeking security guards. The criteria are usually simple enough: army service, an updated arms licence, and no criminal record. Many young people in Israel who have just been released from their mandatory army service fit the bill.


German Leftists fight Antisemites and Anti-Zionists

The caption above Ahmadinejad's head reads "I want nuclear holocaust."
The text below calls for a demonstration against "the most dangerous politician of our time."
See I Like Israel for info.

Germany today is one of the few countries in the world in which committed groups of non-Jewish, left-wing activists actively support Israel. In other European countries, the kind of coalition behind the upcoming protest advertised in the poster above would have been impossible. Just imagine an alliance consisting of religious and secular Jewish organizations, leftist anti-fascist student groups, Israeli-German friendship associations, and foundations (run and funded by non-Jews) committed to fighting antisemitism. Only in America would the kind of action organized by "I like Israel" attract a significant amount of support from non-Jews; it would come almost entirely from the right of the political spectrum.

While elsewhere in the world, radical leftism is synonymous with anti-Zionism, a small but significant number of German neo-Marxists and anti-fascists, who maintain a number of impressive print publications, unequivocally define anti-Zionism as a form of antisemitism. Most of these pro-Israel German leftists define themselves as "anti-Deutsch" - that is, opposed to German nationalism. For several decades, they have been fighting what they perceive as the re-appearance of antisemitism and nationalism through the backdoors of leftist anti-imperialism, anti-Americanism, and anti-Zionism. They have also tenaciously opposed the self-serving equations of Nazi atrocities with Israeli actions in the Palestinian territories by some German intellectuals, in the process drawing attention to the convergence of Holocaust deniers, Muslim fundamentalists, and pro-Palestinian groups. Often, these young, highly-educated activists challenge neo-Nazi groups as well as the ubiquitous keffiyeh-clad shock-troops of the anti-globalization, anti-American, anti-Israel left on the streets of Germany's large cities. Unlike leftists in England, France, and Berkeley, California, they do not underestimate the virulent antisemitism sweeping through much of the Muslim world. They see it as the historical responsibility of Germans to oppose the genocidal rhetoric of individuals such as Iranian President Ahmadinejad and organizations such as Hamas.

Living in Berlin several years ago, at the height of the second intifada, I had the opportunity to meet a number of organizers from the ranks of the anti-Deutsche. Most of them emphasized that they are "unfortunately only a small part of the German left." They were often deeply critical and pessimistic about the German discourse on Israel and the Middle East, noting rampant bias against Israel in the media. At the same time, they also expressed fears about the resurgence of neo-Nazi groups in the former East Germany and the resulting increase in attacks on "foreigners." I was therefore pleased to read an article by Assaf Uni, "The good men of Leipzig ," in Ha'aretz a few days ago (thanks for the reference, Ima), which described the relative success of the anti-Deutsche in this city.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Tsipi Livni Makes the Case for Diplomacy

Israeli FM Tsipi Livni with U.S. President George Bush, September 2006
(Photo: Eric Draper, Office of the President)

In an interview with Ari Shavit, Israeli Foreign Minister Tsipi Livni makes clear her ambitions to run for the position of prime minister in the future. She also promotes her independent diplomatic initiative, for which some Knesset members are hoping to have her fired.

On the peace process with the Palestinians:
I think that I can conduct talks with Abbas that will clarify what they want to achieve in the two-state vision. On the one hand, I want to anchor my interests on the security issue, demilitarization and the refugee problem, and on the other I want to create a genuine alternative for the Palestinians that includes a solution to their national problem. If we achieve such an alternative, the moderate Palestinians will have to receive a mandate to implement it. At a certain point, it will also be necessary to bring in moderate Arab countries to support the plan. It may also be possible to formulate some of the basic principles of the final status agreement, even if it's impossible to reach such an agreement now.
On last summer's Lebanon war and its aftermath:
Yes. During those days, the thinking was too militaristic. But I think that today, in the wake of the war, there's a better understanding that the strategy cannot be only military. They understand that in the army too. At the beginning of the war, some people thought that the diplomatic role was to provide the army with time. That's understandable: In the past we always achieved, we conquered, we released, we won, and then the world came and took away from us. The victory was military and the failure political. But this time it was the opposite.

Monday, January 01, 2007

Michael Totten on Lebanon's Michel 'Aoun

Michel Aoun at a meeting with Condoleeza Rice
in July 2005 (Source: Dept. of State)

Michael Totten recently published an excellent piece examining the tactical alliance between Michel 'Aoun and Hizbullah in Lebanon. It is definitely worth reading to understand some of the socio-economic frustrations that account for the attraction felt by a segment of the Lebanese Maronite Christian population - and other Lebanese - to this populist leader.

Totten's piece reminds us not to fall into the trap of reducing Lebanese politics to a conflict between Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah, on one side, and the western-leaning Seniora government on the other. There are other elements in the opposition that do not share most or any of Hizbullah's values, especially not the foreign policy of the movement.

In his
latest post, Totten reconstructs a meeting with two 'Aoun supporters at a coffee house, which reveals that his supporters are not simply blindly following a charismatic leader. Totten's Christian informants in fact identify corruption and monopolistic tendencies in Lebanon - which they associate with the Hariri family - as being at the root of their support of 'Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement (al-Tayyār al-Watani al-Hurr).

Throughout the conversation with his Lebanese interlocutors, Jack and Antonios, Totten confronts them with his critical views of 'Aouns political manoeuvres and challenges them to explain an alliance that seems destined to fail to the detriment of the former Maronite militia leader. Notwithstanding their tendency to think in more conspiratorial terms (something that is understandable in Lebanon, as Totten explains), the pair reveal themselves to be quite level-headed. Their only flaw - and it is a big one - seems to be that they have wholeheartedly accepted the notion that the alliance with Nasrallah can be treated as a means to an end: to secure enough votes from Lebanese Shi'a to allow 'Aoun to become elected as Lebanese president and to give the Free Patriotic Movement a greater voice in the Lebanese cabinet. In other words, they think that Hizbullah can be restrained once it is given even more power in cabinet and parliament.

A screenshot from the website of the Lebanese "Free Patriotic Movement"

I have no idea how many non-Shi'i Lebanese back the Free Patriotic Movement at this stage. The FPM's website has a detailed break-down of a poll it conducted recently and claims that 66.2% of poll respondents (of all confessions) said they would back an FPM candidate for the Presidential Office reserved to Maronites according to the Lebanese constitution. The website also asserts that 69.7% of those polled said they would back the FPM "and its allies" (i.e. Hizbullah). I might take a closer look at the poll in a future post.