Kramer cautions against embrace of Hamas

I found a good piece by Martin Kramer on Hamas. I have to admit that I was quite taken by the pronouncements of certain scholars, including my boss at the Chaim Herzog Center, Dr. Yoram Meital, about the inevitable transformation of Hamas into a local version of the Turkish Islamist parties. Kramer makes a good, realistic argument that this scenario of Hamas becoming a pragmatic movement likely to reconcile itself to Israel's existence, is very unlikely. We really have to take all its occasional conciliatory rhetoric with a grain of salt. The article, by the way, appeared in the Lebanese English-language Daily Star.

In his piece, "Only targeted sanctions might moderate Hamas" (March 29, 2006), Kramer points out that unlike other Islamist movements who have embraced more pragmatic stances (such as the Turkish welfare party), Hamas has no experience being a political opposition. They basically came into power without making any compromises. Hamas also retains its militia and was never really cracked down upon and suppressed in the way that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or the Turkish Islamists were.

Canadian was technical "mastermind" behind al-Qaeda plot

These guys actually sound like a bunch of amateurs. But apparently an Ottawa-based computer technician who fixed computers for the Dept. of Foreign Affairs was behind a plot to use remote-controlled airplanes to bomb London.

This emerged in testimony at a British court. The guy might be a complete liar though.

This was kind of amusing:

"When I was in Pakistan, me and Cash [Mr. Babar] talked about Immy, what's he going to do there," Mr. Khawaja wrote in one e-mail. "We have a suggestion for a one-way operation to the most high, maybe in Yahoodi land."

It was not explained who "Immy" was. But "Yahoodi" is an Arab term for Jews, and in common parlance "Yahoodi land" could refer to Israel or to the West in general.

Who WAS Immy???

Updated Election Results

I am a bit confused about this to be honest, but these changes are due to the ballots of soldiers and overseas personnel being counted later. Kadima, Likud, and Meretz all gained an extra seat. Yisrael Beitenu and Shas dropped 1, as did Ra'am-Ta'al.

Kadima: 29
Labor: 20
Shas: 12
Likud: 12
Yisrael Beitenu: 11
National Union-NRP: 9
Pensioners: 7
United Torah Judaism: 6
Meretz: 5
Ra'am-Ta'al: 3
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3
TOTAL: 120

These changes are actually not so insignificant because Kadima + Labor + Pensioners + Meretz = 61 seats. That's a majority of Zionist parties (btw, why does it matter so much? why should a future withdrawal plan have less legitimacy if part of its support comes from Arab parties?) who would support a future "disengagement" from the West Bank.

Ordering a kosher meal? Think again

I just went to the travel agency to get my flight back to Canada. As usual, I requested a kosher meal, so that I don't have to eat ham and cheese. The salesperson, who was really friendly and professional, told me that there might be a problem. Well, it turns out that the problem is that when you order kosher nowadays, you are automatically put on an FBI WATCH list!

Wild stuff, no?

My first thought: someone explain the difference between halal and kosher to these fools! More seriously: this is insidious. I guess the directive was primarily targetting those suspicious halal eaters (terrible!) and kosherizers simply got caught. Well, it's screwed up that they thought to target Muslims like that. It's crazy that ANYONE should be a priori singled out like this because of their religious commitments. Isn't this grounds for a lawsuit? It's crazy that people who eat different food because of their beliefs should become targets like this. They're imposing conformity and making difference suspect. Well, screw them, I'm not eating their ham and cheese sandwiches.

Latest Results

Kadima: 28
Labor: 20
Shas: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Likud: 11
National Union-NRP: 9
Pensioners: 7
United Torah Judaism: 6
Meretz: 4
Ra'am-Ta'al: 4
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3
TOTAL: 120

Voter turnout: 63.2%

Most likely coalition?
Kadima + Labor + Shas + Pensioners = 68

Most surprising winners?
Pensioners
Shas
Yisrael Beitenu
Labor

Big losers?
Shinui/Hetz
Likud
Meretz

Kadima won but it's a very right-wing Knesset, no?
There are 32 far-right seats (NRP-NU + Yisrael Beitenu + Likud), plus 19 ultra-orthos (UTJ + Shas). That's 51 seats! And these are all parties, which, in theory, opposed the disengagement.

Exit Polls

Wow, these elections are turning out quite differently from what I expected, at least if we can trust these exit polls.

It looks like Kadima will get 31 seats. Labor, thank God, is doing much better than I anticipated: let's say 20 seats. Yisrael Beitenu, Avigdor Liberman's party, which appealed mainly to Russian immigrants, might become the third-largest party with 13 seats, while the Likud could drop to fourth place with 12 seats. Shas should get around 10 seats. The big surprise is the Pensioners' Party, which might gain 7 seats. Meretz will probably get at least 5 seats. I haven't looked at the data for the NRP-NU, United Torah, or the Arab parties yet. It looks like the low voter turnout really hurt Kadima and benefitted the Pensioners, which is partly in line with my prediction. Turnout among Arab voters is even lower; I am not sure what that means in terms of the results.

What kinds of coalitions are we looking at here? It does look like a center-left bloc will be able to form a government, but who knows what exactly will happen.

Is it possible that Olmert will renege and build a coalition with Yisrael Beitenu? Will Shas or the Ashkenazi ultras be a part of this government? If the Pensioners join the government, what will their role be?

I am really curious about GIL גימלאי ישראל לכנסת (gimla'ei yisrael la-knesset) - the Pensioners Party. The first person on the list is Eitan Rafael. They even have a Wikipedia entry but only in English! The Israeli Knesset web site (English or Hebrew version) doesn't have any additional information either. Anyway, you gotta respect those senior citizens showing people how to get off your ass and vote!

I could see Liberman staying in the opposition - in some ways, it's not so bad for him to bide his time until the next elections roll around. The Russians will keep feeling neglected by the other parties. By staying out of power, Liberman will be able to absolve himself of any responsibility for tought decisions about the economy and the security situation. Then again, he really wants a ministerial post. Let's see what happens.

the big Loser? if the exIt polls are right, we Know who that is...but i am afraid to say anything Until i see it confirmeD.

"Israeli Arabs" = Bad "Arab Jews" = Good

Here's another example of the hypocrisy and intellectual dishonesty of post-colonial scholars. You will hardly find a po-coist, whether in Israel or abroad, use the term "Israeli Arabs" to describe Arabs who are citizens of Israel. The in-vogue term is "Palestinian Israelis" or "Palestinians in Israel." I know enough Arabs here in Israel to know that many indeed do not identify themselves as Israelis. It's certainly true that Arab academics tend to identify themselves as Palestinians. Other identities such as " 'Arab 48" (Arabs of 1948) is usually used by Arabs from Israel when they go abroad, especially if they meet other other Arabs and feel uncomfortable. But there are many Arabs who describe themselves as Israeli Arabs, even when they go abroad! And there's no denying that they know they're different from the Palestinians abroad and from the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza! They have very different experiences, and even though they might have family ties, commercial ties (this is true also among the Bedouin), etc., a Palestinian kid in Nablus or Hebron has a very different experience from an Arab kid in the Negev or in Haifa. For crying out loud, the average Israeli Arab/Palestinian Israeli/whatever can't converse for more than five minutes without using a Hebrew word! As a high school teacher in a Bedouin school in the Negev in Israel, I know that the MOST popular affirmative response to many questions is the Hebrew word "beseder" (ok) often combined with the Arabic word "tayyib" as in "tayyib-beseeder".

That reminds me of a story told to me by an Arab friend who recalled the time he took a commuter cab (monit sherut) to Ramallah from Jerusalem. This was at a time of high tension around Netanyahu's tunnel riots and he made sure not to speak Hebrew on his cell phone. Anyway, an Arab friend of his called and they began talking and at the conclusion of the conversation, my friend slipped in the word "beseder". He was reprimanded by two stern Palestinian young women sitting behind him who scolded him for speaking Hebrew in a Palestinian Taxi. He got them back later though when they substituted English words for Arabic ones.

If you listen to Dr. Lauren Erdreich, research associate at Princeton's Transregional Research Institute, though, you'd never be the wiser of all these subtleties. Who cares about subtlety, when you have a political statement to make? Here's Erdreich defending her centre's preference of the term "Palestinians in Israel" over "Israeli Arabs":

http://www.princeton.edu/~transreg/position_announcement.html

The usage of the term [Palestinians in Israel] grew out of a postcolonial approach to the social study of the area of Israel/Palestine, which takes into account the legacies of colonization (Turkish, British, and Israeli) in shaping the social and political life of this indigenous population as well as of other indigenous and immigrant populations (such as Mizrahi Jews). One of these legacies is the categorization of minorities: Palestinians in the state after 1948 were referred to as “Israeli Arabs” in order to distinguish them from their brethren outside of the state, despite any social, economic, political, religious, or familial ties they might share. The use of the term “Palestinian” or “ Palestine” was even forbidden in Arab sector schools until after Oslo. Similarly, Jewish immigrants from Arab lands were termed “mizrahim” (easterners) and never referred to as “Arab Jews,” despite the cultural, linguistic, and historic ties they shared with other Arab populations. In both terms we can see how the State tried to set boundaries around groups and determine where these groups would fit in and how they would identify with the State. It did not always work however, and so today we still see Palestinian Israelis feeling a dual and complex identification both with the State and with Palestinians, (as well as Mizrahi Jews feeling both part of the State and forcefully estranged from their “Arab” traditions).

The term “Palestinian Israelis” is then intended as a rejection of coercive state attempts to deny this community its heritage and identification, as well as a reflection of the community’s experience of duality in identifying as citizens of a state that often discriminates against them and their brethren.

Hold it, Lauren, calling Jews from Arab countries "Arab Jews" is not a denial of the identification of many of those people? Does the fact that Jews of Moroccan or Yemenite origin speak/spoke Arabic and shared some of the same customs as other Moroccans and Yemenis automatically make them Arab Jews? Was the identification "Arab Jew" even meaningful in societies where most people still identified primarily in religious terms? And what about their own desire to identify themselves as Israelis or even as mizrahim? Lauren, if your Palestinian Israelis are not Israeli Arabs, even though Arab academics express themselves better in Hebrew than Arabic and even though they are steeped in Israeli culture, then why do Yemenite Jews become "Arab Jews" in your dictionary?

BTW, most mizrahim, and I'm not afraid to use that term, don't express anger about being estranged from "Arab" traditions. Usually, they frame it in terms of having been estranged from their JEWISH traditions by the ashkenazi elite.

"Palestine" = Good "Eretz Yisra'el" = Bad

Post-colonial academics really piss me off sometimes. On the one hand, they have no problem deconstructing the hell out of Zionist national myths. That's perfectly fine by me and I have no problem if they do so rigorously and in an interesting manner. But how is it that they never critically examine Palestinian nationalist narratives, which assign to the name "Palestine" a constancy throughout history that is simply misleading? Why is it acceptable to make references to an entity called Palestine in histories dealing with the 19th century? Why is the name "Palestine" constantly invoked in anachronistic ways, without even a footnote accounting for its use? I do not wish to deny, as some might, that the name فلسطين (Filastin) only became identified with the area between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River as a result of the British Mandate. I'm aware that even though, in the 19th century, the northern, central and southern parts of this area belonged to different Ottoman vilayat (Damascus and later Beirut) and one sanjak (Jerusalem), there was, especially among Christians, a tendency to identify the area as one territorial entity. However, I do not think that there is a whole lot of evidence to suggest that the name فلسطين was as common as the appelation, الارض المقدسة (al-ard al-muqaddasa - the holy land = which can be translated literally into Hebrew as הארץ המקודשת ha-eretz ha-mequdeshet) in the 19th century.

How is it then that Middle Eastern studies scholars can get away with using Palestine so freely, while anyone who uses the term Eretz Yisrael faces censure? Why is Palestine considered more academic and more acceptable? It is certainly not less loaded, especially when used anachronistically.

US WZO Congress Elections Results

While we are on the topic of elections, American Jews recently elected 145 delegates to represent them in the 35th Zionist Congress - "The Congress of the Jewish People." Voting was done online with registration running from July 1, 2005 to February 15, 2006. Overall, more than 85,000 registered to vote, of whom 88% cast ballots.

I think it's interesting to observe the clear victory of left-of-center and left-wing parties in these elections. See information on the parties and their lists.

Here are the results:

ARZA (Reform) 55
Baltimore Zionist District 1
Dor Zion 2
Green Zionist Alliance 2
Hatikva (Meretz and other left-wing parties) 5
Herut, NA 2
Jewish Reconstructionist 2
Likud 3
Mercaz (Conservative Movement) 32
Religious Zionist Slate 35
Russian American Jews for Israel 1
Zionist Organization of America 5

Total 145

Election Predictions #2

This new poll in Ha'aretz has led me to revise my figures for Shinui and Hetz (no seats??). There is also the Pensioners' Party (one of those narrow interest parties to which I referred below but did not mention by name). Here's my new prediction. I am still predicting more votes for Kadima than Ha'aretz. I think that Kadima is most likely to benefit from last-minute decisions by undecided voters because they are the party in power. Notice also the changes in the Arab parties' seats, and my revision of the NRP-National Union prediction (initial one was way too low).

Kadima: 38
Labor: 17
Likud: 14
Shas: 12
National Religious Party-National Union (Elon): 11
Yisrael Beitenu (Avigdor Liberman): 7
Meretz-Yahad: 6
United Torah Judaism: 6
Balad (Bishara): 4
Hadash (Barake): 2
United Arab List: 2
Pensioners' Party: 1

Time for some elections predictions

There are 120 seats up for grabs on Tuesday, March 28. How many will each party get, and what kind of coalition will form the government? What will the voter turnout be?

I am usually terrible at this but here is my first prediction, which I will probably revise tomorrow:

Kadima: 38
Labor: 16
Likud: 14
Shas: 10
Yisrael Beitenu (Avigdor Liberman): 8
Meretz-Yahad: 6
United Torah Judaism: 6
Balad (Bishara): 6
Shinui (Levintal): 6
Hetz (Poraz): 4
National Religious Party-National Union (Elon): 4
Hadash (Barake): 1
United Arab List: 1

I've left out Herut (Kleiner), the National Jewish Front (Marzel), the Greens, the Green Leaf Party, and a number of other small parties. Maybe one or two of these parties will pick up a seat each. In the case of the right-wing parties, those seats would come at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu and the National Religious Party-National Union list.

If the Green Leaf Party wins a seat, it would not be as much at the expense of left-wing parties - that seat will have been won due to a higher than anticipated voter turnout among young people who would not have voted for any of the established parties.

By the way, we may be surprised by some other very small party gaining a seat. There are a number of such parties representing extremely narrow interests who may draw on a disillusioned, apathetic electorate. This will become more likely if the weather is good on elections day.

Hamas Appeals to Israeli Voters

What effect, if any, do you think this last-minute appeal by Hamas to Israeli voters will have? Although Haniyeh said that

the intention of the leading Kadima Party of Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to withdraw from parts of the West Bank without agreement from the Palestinians is unacceptable

and added that

The problem is with Olmert, with Kadima. He said he will not have any contacts with the Palestinian government. He announced a position. The problem is not with us,

I have a sense that this might actually help Kadima. It's definitely more helpful to the party than Abu Mazen telling Israelis to vote for Olmert. My reasoning is that any appearance of moderation on the part of Hamas is likely to boost either Kadima or Labor votes at the expense of the Likud. That is, if anyone is actually listening.

The Israeli Elections - Some Bedouin Commentary

More and more people seem to be saying that Kadima might not win the Israeli elections after all. There does seem to be a downward trend, even in the polls. Olmert himself is said to be concerned that many potential Kadima voters are complacent and won't go to the polls on the election day on Tuesday, March 28. I think it's even expected to rain, so that certainly won't help in getting people voting. Likud voters, on the other hand, are said to be more ideological, more hard core, so that they'll vote no matter what. I think the same might be true for Labour in these elections... Let's hope so.

The reason that I decided to raise the issue of the elections today, aside from the fact that they are coming up, is an interesting little bit of political analysis that I got from my cab driver today. I was on my way back to Beer Sheva from my part-time job as an English teacher in the Bedouin village of Kseife and was waiting near Tsomet Shoqet to catch the bus back home, when I saw the familiar sight of a חפר (pronounced "khapper"; Hebrew slang for an illegit. Taxi - basically, in the Negev, we're usually talking about a Bedouin dude with a Mercedes or an old GM Transit van who doesn't have any official permission to be offering public transit, takes cash and usually caters to Bedouin who want to get from their village to Beer Sheva or back). Cabbies, khapperim or not are of course known for their tendency to volunteer political commentary, so I wasn't surprised to hear him say "mark my words, write this down, these elections are going to be a big surprise." This guy was confident that the next government would be formed by Amir Peretz and Netanyahu (!) who he said would each serve a two-year rotation as Prime Ministers (rotations are really popular in the Bedouin sector: in the Bedouin town of Rahat, there's never just one mayor, they always agree on a rotation in the end). According to Mr. Cab Driver, Kadima is going down, mainly because poor people are going to vote Labour and ideological right-wingers will go vote Netanyahu, no matter what.

In Israel, you can ask people what they're voting. It's not the least bit sensitive, although Arabs voting Balad or whatever might sometimes be reluctant to volunteer that information. I was going to ask the driver, but he pre-empted me by saying that he doesn't care about politics (Israeli Arab code for: I don't care about the Palestinian issue) and just wants someone in power who will improve the economy and general living conditions. I've been hearing that line quite frequently in Kseife (although many Bedouin just say that they aren't going to vote for anyone because the government doesn't "care about us"), so I figured this was another Bedouin Kadima or Labour voter. But curiousity got the better of me and I finally pressed the question: "So who are you voting for?"

It turns out that Bedouins also vote SHAS. Yup, that's right. My Bedouin cab driver was voting SHAS "because they care about poor people and because they'll raise the family allowances for large families." It's not the first time I've heard about Arabs voting Shas (Abu Ghosh apparently also supports them), but I didn't know this extended all the way to the Negev.

You learn something new every day.

Joseph Massad on the Lobby Canard

I view Joseph Massad as a symbol of the double-standards in place in Middle Eastern Studies departments. The man has constructed what amounts to a theology on Israel, Israeli society and Zionism, apparently with little knowledge of Hebrew and very little inside understanding of Israel. How this guy has the balls to preach about such complex matters as Israeli ethnic-relations is beyond me. I guess what matters most for Massad and his ilk is their grand theory or whatever cause they're fighting for.

Having said all that, I have to admit that I was almost pleasantly surprised by Massad's latest piece in the Egyptian Al-Ahram Weekly. Massad sees past the ludicrous obsession of the western left and the Arab world with the Jewish Lobby and sets the record straight: America backs Israel because it is in its own "evil" interest to do so, not because of some omnipotent evil Jewish Lobby that prevents the good "real" Americans from doing what is right. Massad even points out that America spends far more on its American bases in the Arab world and in the rest of the world than it contributes in aid to Israel. He even attacks American State Department Arabists, whom he accuses of using the spectre of the "Jewish Lobby" as a lame excuse to their Arab dictator friends. There's lots more in the article, and it definitely deserves to be read. Here's an excerpt:

Joseph Massad, "Blaming the Lobby," Al-Ahram Weekly 23 - 29 March 2006, Issue No. 787.

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/787/op35.htm

[...]

"AIPAC is indeed powerful insofar as it pushes for policies that accord with US interests and that are resonant with the reigning US imperial ideology. The power of the pro-Israel lobby, whether in Congress or on campuses among university administrators, or policy-makers is not based solely on their organisational skills or ideological uniformity. In no small measure, anti-Semitic attitudes in Congress (and among university administrators) play a role in believing the lobby's (and its enemies') exaggerated claims about its actual power, resulting in their towing the line. But even if this were true, one could argue, it would not matter whether the lobby has real or imagined power. For as long as Congress and policy-makers (and university administrators) believe it does, it will remain effective and powerful. I of course concede this point.

What then would have been different in US policy in the Middle East absent Israel and its powerful lobby? The answer in short is: the details and intensity but not the direction, content, or impact of such policies. Is the pro- Israel lobby extremely powerful in the United States? As someone who has been facing the full brunt of their power for the last three years through their formidable influence on my own university and their attempts to get me fired, I answer with a resounding yes. Are they primarily responsible for US policies towards the Palestinians and the Arab world? Absolutely not. The United States is opposed in the Arab world as elsewhere because it has pursued and continues to pursue policies that are inimical to the interests of most people in these countries and are only beneficial to its own interests and to the minority regimes in the region that serve those interests, including Israel. Absent these policies, and not the pro-Israel lobby which supports them, the United States should expect a change in its standing among Arabs. Short of that, the United States will have to continue its policies in the region that have wreaked, and continue to wreak, havoc on the majority of Arabs and not expect that the Arab people will like it in return."