Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Another Option: Unity Government

Both Livni and Bibi have expressed their opposition to a unity government. But the numbers, elucidated in my previous post, may make the option of a Kadima-Likud coalition government more appealing. Presumably, such a government would have a rotating premiership shared by Livni and Netanyahu. Here is what it would look like:

Kadima + Likud + Labor + Yisrael Beitenu
= (28 + 27 + 13 + 15) seats
= 83 seats [there are 120 in the Knesset]

It would also be possible without Labor or Yisrael Beitenu, but Kadima would need Labor as a buffer and Likud would need Yisrael Beitenu. Of course, such a government would be handicapped in major policy moves such as peace negotiations, because nearly half of the coalition might oppose them at any time. The key to the puzzle is examining the Likud list and to see what MKs would sit in the Knesset.

Here are the top 28 Likud MKs (I've included one extra, just in case Likud picks up another mandate when the remaining ballots are counted). There are quite a few unknowns (to me) among them, whose political orientation I cannot predict. It looks like the far-right ("right") and more moderate right ("right-centrist") forces are even. By "right," in this case, I mean MKs who would go as far as voting against the government, i.e., against Netanyahu's instructions, if they felt that a policy contradicted their ideology. It looks like this kind of unity government might be able to function. This is hardly scientific and I am open to correction on all of these. 

Note the number of women on the list, the election of Ayub Kra (a Druze MK), and an Ethiopian immigrant Adamsu on #28 (he came to Israel in 1983 though). 

1. Netanyahu (right-centrist)
2. Gideon Sa'ar (right-centrist)
3. Gil'ad Arden (right)
4. Reuven Rivlin (right-centrist)
5. Benny Begin (right)
6. Moshe Kahalon (right)
7. Silvan Shalom (right-centrist)
8. Moshe Ya'alon (right-centrist)
9. Yuval Steinitz (right-centrist)
10. Leah Nes (?)
11. Yisrael Katz (right)
12. Yuli Adelshteyn (right)
13. Limor Livnat (right)
14. Haim Katz (right)
15. Yosef Feld (?)
16. Michael Eitan (right)
17. Dan Meridor (right-centrist)
18. Tsipi Hutubali (?)
19. Gila Gamliel (?)
20. Ze'ev Alkin
21. Yariv Levin
22. Tsion Pinian
23. Ayub Kra (right-centrist)
24. Dani Danon
25. Karmel Shamah
26. Ofir Akunis
27. Miri Regev (right-centrist)
28. Alali Adamsu (?)

1.בנימין נתניהו
40.הילה -אסנת מארק
79.ישראל אמויאל
2.גדעון משה סער
41.אסף חפץ
80.אסיה אנטוב
3.גלעד ארדן
42.יחיאל (מיכאל) לייטר
81.טליה ארגמן
4.ראובן רובי ריבלין
43.דניאל בנלולו
82.אריאל בולשטיין
5.זאב בנימין בגין
44.עוזי דיין
83.מישאל בן עמי
6.משה כחלון
45.אדמונד חסין
84.גבריאל- חיים ביטון
7.סילבן שלום
46.פנינה רוזנבלום סימונוב
85.טל ברודי
8.משה (בוגי) יעלון
47.זאב -יאיר ז`בוטינסקי
86.יבגניי בריסקין
9.יובל שטייניץ
48.מיכאל קליינר
87.אריק ברמי
10.לאה נס
49.נורית (יונה) קורן
88.יוסף גינו
11.ישראל כץ
50.סמיר קאידבה
89.דוד גולן
12.יולי יואל אדלשטיין
51.יוסף- ספי ריבלין
90.פנחס דלויה
13.לימור אהבה לבנת
52.דוד מנע
91.דוד הרמלין
14.חיים כץ
53.יחיאל- מיכאל חזן
92.יוסף חביב
15.יוסף פלד
54.משה שלמה מוסקל
93.יואב טבול
16.מיכאל - מיקי איתן
55.אליהו גבאי
94.אופיר טוביאנה
17.דן מרידור
56.גיל חדד
95.שלמה טל
18.ציפי חוטובלי
57.אלי אבידר
96.זהר ירמיהו
19.גילה גמליאל
58.חמי - נחמיה דורון
97.אסתר שושנה לזרוביץ
20.זאב אלקין
59.מיכל - דאה כפרי - ירדני
98.פרד מונצ`רס
21.יריב גדעון לוין
60.אתי תלמי
99.עופר מוקה
22.ציון פיניאן
61.בלהה ניסנסון
100.יהונתן מישייב
23.איוב קרא
62.ריכאד חיאדין
101.דוד מימון
24.דני דנון
63.אפריים אבן
102.אליהו מלכה
25.כרמל שאמה
64.איילה שטגמן
103.טובה מעוז
26.אופיר אקוניס
65.מרים ארז
104.סנדרה סגיואן
27.מירי (מרים) רגב
66.עטאף קרינאוי
105.מיכאל סוטובסקי
28.אללי אדמסו
67.יוסף בדש
106.אלון סיסו
29.יצחק (איציק) דנינו


Noah K said...

Effectively, what's the difference between a grand unity coalition like this that can't function when push comes to shove, and a rightest coalition that the West views as ideologically repugnant, and can't/won't work with on the big issues?

Amos said...

This kind of government could function reasonably well, if my assessment of the various Likud MKs is correct. The U.S. and the Europeans will have no choice but to work with whatever coalition forms in Israel. Of course, they will be far more inclined to exert heavy pressure on a far-right Netanyahu-led government than they would on a Livni-run coalition. That is a problem that Bibi would have to deal with, if he were to assemble the kind of far-right coalition described in my previous post. I think he is cognizant of the need for "cover." But I would not overestimate the importance of this consideration for Livni and Netanyahu as they compete for a way to gain power.

Anonymous said...

Why don’t you just give your government over to Obama.

He could solve all your problems just like he is solving America’s.

You aren’t racist are you?

Amos said...

Not sure I understand your comment/question, anonymous.

Anonymous said...

Elect Obama your leader.

He can run two countries at the same time.

Anonymous said...

I'm American and I find "anonymous's" comments pretty funny. I guess you had to be here during the campaign. I remember one time telling an older gentleman that I preferred Hilary to Obama (although I really preferred neither, nor McCain for that matter). Well he responded really loudly in a public place "I guess it's because he's black!" If you didn't support Obama you were frequently called a racist. It was downright stupid.

In any case, it is really scary how much Israelis are talking about what kind of gov't Obama would prefer. I think he would prefer one led by Meretz if you ask me. Anyone can google the disdain he showed for Likud in a speech he made right before he was elected.