Sunday, March 26, 2006

Election Predictions #2

This new poll in Ha'aretz has led me to revise my figures for Shinui and Hetz (no seats??). There is also the Pensioners' Party (one of those narrow interest parties to which I referred below but did not mention by name). Here's my new prediction. I am still predicting more votes for Kadima than Ha'aretz. I think that Kadima is most likely to benefit from last-minute decisions by undecided voters because they are the party in power. Notice also the changes in the Arab parties' seats, and my revision of the NRP-National Union prediction (initial one was way too low).

Kadima: 38
Labor: 17
Likud: 14
Shas: 12
National Religious Party-National Union (Elon): 11
Yisrael Beitenu (Avigdor Liberman): 7
Meretz-Yahad: 6
United Torah Judaism: 6
Balad (Bishara): 4
Hadash (Barake): 2
United Arab List: 2
Pensioners' Party: 1

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